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31-Dec-2016 13:25

If we simply extrapolate my analysis into the future, it would indicate bloom dates would shift another 5 days earlier by around 2100 - from around March 30 to March 25.If you read the Post front page story, you’d notice this is a much slower shift than in the study discussed.

What do these historic trends indicate about the future?

The study cited in Post story projected trees would bloom 10 days earlier by 2080 (2070-2099) in a mid-range global warming scenario and 29 days earlier in a high-end scenario - or early March.

Study link: Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change In other words, this study suggests cherry trees will shift earlier 2 to 6 times faster in the future compared to the past (which means the climate would have to warm that much faster as well). C.’s climate would have to warm 5 to 14 degrees by 2080 for the study’s projections about bloom dates to be achieved (assuming the relationship between temperature and bloom dates stays the same).

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